International Oil Assessment (11.03): Manufacturing Data Boosted And OPEC + Production Was Expected To Delay, And International Oil Prices Rose By More Than 3%

U.S. WTI crude oil December futures closed up $1.02, or 2.85%, to $36.81/barrel on Monday, mainly driven by the market's expectation that OPEC's production reduction would be delayed for three months, and strong manufacturing data would boost oil prices. U.S. WTI crude oil December futures closed up US $1.02, or 2.85%, to US $36.81/barrel, and it fell to a new five-month low of $33.64/barrel in the early Asian market; December futures of Brent crude oil rose $1.51, or 4.03%, to $38.97/barrel.

It is reported that OPEC + is considering delaying the implementation of the production reduction agreement, and the market expects Russia to postpone its policy of reducing the scale of OPEC + production by three months, which was expected to be in January. The news, two oil short-term rise. Not only that, the rise in US manufacturing PMI data in October indicates that the economy is recovering, and its potential trend continues to strengthen at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The market is encouraged. It is reported that the PMI of ISM manufacturing industry in the United States recorded 59.3 in October, the highest since November 2018; the ISM new order index of the United States in October reached 67.9, the highest since January 2004; the ISM employment index of the United States in October recorded 53.2, which was the first time to rise above 50 since July 2019.

It is also reported that China's plan to increase oil imports will undoubtedly benefit the balance of supply and demand in the oil market and boost market confidence.

China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Monday that it would increase the non-state-owned trade import allowance of crude oil by more than 20% from this year's level. On this basis, China's import quota has been raised to 823000 barrels a day, slightly lower than the output of Algeria, a member of OPEC. The enterprises covered by quotas include private independent refineries, and those covered by quotas include private independent refineries. In recent years, their importance to the global oil market has been increasing. In recent months, the capacity utilization rate of these enterprises is higher than that of the same period last year.

In addition, the rise in oil prices must be affected by the risk of turmoil after the US election, boosting demand. Most of the market is betting on Trump's reelection. Some analysts said that if Biden is elected as president of the United States, the new measures he is considering will depress the oil industry and vigorously promote green new energy, which will cause an additional blow to oil prices. The price of us oil will fall below $30 by the end of the year Off. At the same time, the prospect of further easing oil supply between the Democratic Party of Iran and the U.S. oil market may also be unfavorable. But analysts believe that once trump is re elected, the situation may be more complicated, which will ultimately determine the next step of the oil market.

In addition, the rise in oil prices was also affected by speculators' long bets on US stocks. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the net long position of S & P 500 electronic Mini futures contract reached a new high since January 2019 in the week ending October 27. This more optimistic stance by speculators comes after the S & P 500 fell from its record high in September. The index fell again last week, down 5.6%.

At present, many economies have restarted blockade measures to control the second wave of NCP, and have always restricted the rise of oil prices. On November 1, local time, the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Europe passed another node - the number of confirmed cases exceeded 10 million. It took nine months from the announcement of the first confirmed case in Europe to five million confirmed cases, while it took only five weeks to grow from 5 million to 10 million. We can see how rapidly cases are soaring in Europe right now. In the face of a new wave of epidemic, many European countries have introduced new "blockade" or "semi blockade" measures. The CEO of Vitol Energy Group believes that the latest blockade measures may affect the crude oil demand of 500000 barrels / day, and the demand scale in winter is estimated to be 96 million barrels / day. The CEO of Trafigura Group believes that global crude oil demand may decline by 88-89 million barrels / day.