GDP Grew By 6.7% In The First Quarter Of 2016 Compared With The Same Period Last Year. What Do They Say?

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According to the preliminary data, the GDP in the first quarter was 158526 billion yuan, up 6.7% from the comparable price.

Experts believe that the effect of steady growth policy has begun to emerge gradually, and the two quarter economy is expected to be better than the first quarter.

However, we still need to pay attention to a series of uncertainties faced by the economic operation, and the future needs targeted, accurate policy measures to deal with it.

Steady growth policy results show

GDP grew by 6.7% in the first quarter, the lowest growth rate in 28 consecutive quarters, but slightly better than market expectations. Especially in March, the economic indicators rebounded significantly compared with January and February.

Deputy director of the center for macroeconomic research of Minsheng Bank Research Institute should read from the trend that the economy is showing signs of stabilization and recovery.

Considering that the GDP base was raised due to the huge increase in stock market volume in the first quarter of last year, it was not easy to lower the GDP growth rate of the service sector in the current quarter and eventually achieve an increase of 6.7% over the same period.

Wen Bin, chief research fellow, said that indicators such as industrial production, investment, consumption, import and export have been improved, and the macroeconomic operation has been holding down downward pressure and stabilizing temporarily.

In the first quarter, fixed asset investment increased by 10.7% over the same period last year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. It was mainly driven by the rebound in real estate and infrastructure investment.

With the increase of new projects, investment will play a key role in steady growth.

Although the main motive force to support the economic success is investment, Zhao Qingming, chief economist of CIC Research Institute, believes that if consumption can not be fundamentally improved, the main investment will probably lead to overcapacity.

At the same time, if the capacity is not implemented, it will not be conducive to the pformation of the mode of economic growth and sustainable development.

Yang Delong, executive general manager of Qianhai open source fund management company, said that the first quarter data showed that the policy of steady growth began to ferment, domestic demand improved significantly and exports rebounded.

Especially since March 2015, the local debt replacement plan has reduced the interest burden of local governments, eliminated the possibility of local debt crisis, and increased the amount of investment that local governments can invest.

By replacing local debt, short-term and high interest local debt becomes a long-term and low interest debt, which is conducive to the implementation of the policy of steady growth.

Structural optimization continues to advance

According to the industry, the added value of the primary industry was 880 billion 300 million yuan, an increase of 2.9% over the same period last year; the added value of the second industry was 59510 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%; the third industry added value of 90214 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%.

In 2015, the GDP increased by 985 billion 100 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 22 billion 200 million yuan over the same period last year.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, thinks that the proportion of the third industry in GDP continues to rise, an increase of 6.4 percentage points over last year, 19.4 percentage points higher than that of the second industry, and the restructuring of the economy continues to advance.

The pulling effect of the second industry on economic growth has dropped to 2.3 percentage points, which is the source of the downward pressure on the economy. The third industry has sped up 4.2 percentage points of economic growth and has become an important kinetic energy for economic growth.

Investment in real estate development and investment in infrastructure construction accelerated, leading to a steady growth in fixed asset investment growth, a steady growth in consumer consumption and retail sales, and a weaker role in the promotion of net exports of goods and services to economic growth.

It is worth noting that the demand structure is also continuing to optimize. The National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Lai Yun said that especially the investment and consumption structure continued to optimize. The growth rate of investment in high-tech industry and service industry remained 3 percentage points higher than that of all investment, and the proportion continued to increase, and the proportion of high energy consumption investment continued to decline.

In addition, the upgrading of consumption structure will boost consumption.

Gao Yuwei, a researcher at the Bank of China International Financial Research Institute, said that with the sustained and rapid growth of residents' income, the consumption structure is in the process of continuous upgrading.

For example, information consumption continues to grow rapidly, and the number of communications equipment grew by 18.9% in the first quarter, the fastest growing in all kinds of consumer goods.

At the same time, the growth of automobile consumption was obviously accelerated. In March, vehicle consumption increased by 12.3% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 6.9 percentage points higher than the first two months.

This is related to the low base in March last year (a decrease of 1.3% over the same period last year), reflecting the great potential for growth of large consumer goods such as automobiles.

Economic stability is good.

Wen Bin said that in the next stage, while maintaining the stability and continuity of macroeconomic regulation and control policies, we should further accelerate structural reforms on the supply side.

At present, the probability of continued interest rate hikes in the US Federal Reserve has decreased, which has gained time for deepening reform.

"The steady growth policy of the two sessions in March is gradually coming into effect."

Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, expects that GDP will be 6.8% higher in the two quarter than in the first quarter.

However, because of the excessive growth of the financial industry last year, the slowdown this year will bring greater pressure to the overall economic growth.

Therefore, to maintain the annual growth rate of more than 6.5%, the growth rate of the second industry should be accelerated, so as to effectively hedge the downward pressure brought by the slowdown in the financial industry.

Zhao Qingming said that combined with the domestic and international situation, the two quarter growth rate will not be lower than the first quarter.

The annual economic growth rate will exceed 6.5%, but slightly lower than last year's 6.9%.

From the perspective of maintaining stable economic growth, it is suggested that efforts should be made to promote consumption in the future.

For a series of uncertainties facing the current operation, Lian Ping said that targeted and precise policies and measures should be taken to deal with it.

We need to implement a more vigorous, focused and efficient fiscal policy.

Robust and neutral, taking into account multiple objectives of reducing leverage, controlling bubbles, preventing inflation and stabilizing exchange rates.

With the steady release of the policy of steady growth in the early stage, the intensity of the current policy is gradually increasing, and the economic operation is likely to stabilize.