The Recent Depreciation Of The Renminbi Will Help Reduce The Inflow Of Hot Money.

< p > after the Spring Festival, the exchange rate of "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "RMB > US dollar < /a > (6.0886, 0.0051, 0.08%) continued to decline, and 20 days the intermediate price and the spot price both set a new low in the new year. Analysts say that since the beginning of the year, the emerging market currencies have generally been derogating, and the performance of the renminbi has been somewhat out of touch with the fundamentals. Therefore, the recent quick reversal of the RMB exchange rate is still reasonable. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will show broad shocks and wave movements in the short and medium term, and the high growth momentum of foreign exchange in recent months will be tested in the future. < /p >
< p > < strong > < a > href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > > RMB > /a > rarely appear soft > /strong > /p >
< p > China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that in February 20, 2014, the RMB exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar was 6.1146 in the inter-bank foreign exchange market, and 6.1103 on the previous trading day fell 43 basis points, which fell for third consecutive trading days. At this point, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has lifted the lowest record since December 27, 2013. < /p >
< p > compared with the moderate downward trend of the recent middle price, the decline of RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market is more prominent than the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > the exchange rate < /a >. On the 20 day, under the influence of the lower middle price, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was sharply lower at 46 basis points at 6.0810. After a majority of the day's concussion, it finally closed at 6.0834, and it rose 70 basis points or 0.12% throughout the day. On the 19 day, the spot exchange rate has fallen by 91 basis points. < /p >
< p > statistics show that as of February 20th, since February, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has fallen by 234 basis points or 0.39%, which is rare since the start of RMB exchange rate reform in 2005. Compared with the 6.0406 yuan in January 14th, the spot rate of RMB against the US dollar has reached a record high level. In recent 1 months, the largest decline in RMB spot exchange rate has reached 404 basis points. < /p >
< p > at present, if the RMB spot exchange rate can not recover the previous lost territory in the remaining trading days of February, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will start to decline for second consecutive months at the beginning of 2014. < /p >
< p > < strong > medium short term running tone or neutral weakness < /strong > < /p >
< p > for the rare continuous depreciation of the RMB exchange rate at the recent stage, analysts believe that it can be regarded as a modest amendment to the early Yuan's own dominance in the background of the currency depreciation of the emerging market, which is still within the reasonable scope. < /p >
< p > from the end of 2013, along with the Fed's formal reduction of the QE rule, the emerging market currencies have generally suffered heavy losses and depreciated sharply. In recent trading days, the currencies of important emerging economies such as won, South Africa and Rand are still dropping. From the end of last year to the middle of January this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar showed a significant unilateral appreciation trend. The intermediate price and the spot price both set up a new exchange rate or a historical high. Shanghai's largest foreign exchange trader said that in January, the renminbi became the world's strongest currency. Judging from the recent "relative soft guidance" of the central parity of RMB exchange rate, the central bank [micro-blog] intends to make a clear indication of the phasing correction of the RMB exchange rate. < /p >
< p > besides, there is also a market view that, taking into account the short term arbitrage hot money that may flow into the territory at the end of last year, the monetary authorities may "cool down" the appreciation of the renminbi by way of devaluation, thus "cooling" the enthusiasm of hot money inflows. < /p >
On the one hand, although the monthly trade data in January showed that the import and export sector started well in the new year, in February, HSBC PMI and other economic indicators also showed that the macro-economy did not completely shake off the shadow of the weak recovery. On the other hand, the withdrawal of the QE from the Federal Reserve QE may bring uncertainty to the global financial market. Therefore, the current mainstream view of the market is that in the long run, the RMB exchange rate may show a wide range of shocks and a weak neutral pattern. < /p >
< p > the information from market front-line transactions also shows that in the recent inter-bank foreign exchange market, commercial banks spontaneously purchased foreign exchange and suspected major central bank intervention led to the emergence of large principal purchase remittance, and the short-term market mentality was still dominated by wait-and-see. < /p >
< p > it is worth noting that from the recent quotations from overseas non deliverable forward foreign exchange markets, the expectations of the overseas market investors for the long-term appreciation trend of the RMB are still relatively stable. Yesterday, the US dollar's NDF quotation for the yuan was near 6.1264, indicating that investors expect the central parity of the renminbi to depreciate by about 0.19% a year, although it has expanded compared with the previous few days, but the range of change is still limited. < /p >